Waiting for the Time

“One year…”

It wasn’t me who muttered those words. The owner of the voice was Pang Tong, who had returned to Chang’an and sought me out.

Having just finished meeting with Liu Bei for a report immediately upon returning, Pang Tong must have also heard about the one-year period, as he kept repeating “one year” over and over.

Liu Bei showed his determination through action. Just like during the previous Wei-Wu alliance offensive, he entrusted Chengdu to Crown Prince Liu Shan and Prime Minister Zhuge Liang, and made his nest in Chang’an himself.

In fact, Liu Bei was staying at Minyangdian Palace. Minyangdian Palace, also called the Western Palace because it was in the west, had been repaired after being destroyed in the rebellion of the Three Feudatories.

Originally, Chang’an had Changlefu Palace used by Liu Bang, Mingguang Palace of Emperor Wu of Han, and the relatively smaller Northern Palace and Jidian Palace in addition to Minyangdian Palace, but the only fully restored palaces were the Western Palace Minyangdian and the Eastern Palace Changlefu.

And this damage to the palaces represented how great a loss Guanzhong had suffered due to the rebellion of the Three Feudatories. Compared to its heyday before the rebellion of the Three Feudatories, the current productivity of Chang’an and Guanzhong was not even half.

Guanzhong with its population and output cut in half, Yongzhou and Yangzhou with little to expect except for horses, Jingzhou just recaptured and difficult to properly collect taxes from.

In reality, only Yizhou, boasting the greatest abundance in the world, was supporting Han’s great enterprise.

The provisions for raising an army, the salaries given to officials, the costs for maintaining the imperial family – it’s not for nothing that Liu Bei still keeps Chengdu as the capital.

I can only marvel at Zhuge Liang’s skill in making one province produce enough to support an entire country.

However, no matter how fertile Yizhou is and boasts enormous production, there was no room to both support the country and nurture the money-eating monster that is war.

This was the reason for opposing the war. Fatigue of soldiers? There’s no need to wait as long as a year for that. Public sentiment can also be suppressed with Zhuge Liang’s governance and Liu Bei’s virtue.

But supplies, especially military provisions, were a separate issue. The biggest problem in waging war, both then and now, lay in food.

Having greatly depleted the stockpiled military provisions with this war, there was a need to fill those empty warehouses first for the next war.

If only there was time to steadily accumulate food in preparation for the northern expedition like Zhuge Liang in the original history. But because of repeated wars – a war as soon as things gathered a bit, a war as soon as there was some recovery – the national treasury often revealed its empty insides.

Coming back, Pang Tong’s repetition of the one-year time frame was to gauge how many supplies could be secured in just one year.

“Will one year be enough?”

One year means one autumn harvest. Though some regions in Nanzhong with mild weather do double-cropping, that’s the end of a year’s harvest if you include that too.

To secure provisions to feed an army of over a hundred thousand with just that? It’s not impossible. Instead, it would be in the form of taking away almost all of what should go to the people.

And that was contrary to the principle of “devote oneself to agriculture and increase grain production to enrich the people’s wealth” that Zhuge Liang had put forth as the basic policy.

Devote oneself to agriculture and increase grain production.

Thereby enrich the people’s wealth.

Zhuge Liang had seen through that only when the people become wealthy can a virtuous economic cycle occur and increase the wealth of the entire country.

To my concerns, Pang Tong unexpectedly gave a positive answer:

“It’s not completely unreasonable.”

“Really?”

“The harvest we’ll reap in Guanzhong this year should be comparable to before the rebellion of the Three Feudatories broke out. If we divert that increase to military provisions, it should be possible, though tight.”

Of course, it’s true that after the rebellion of the Three Feudatories, Cao Cao had implemented continuous recovery policies while recapturing Guanzhong. People returned to Guanzhong, which was said to have completely disappeared, and nearly half of the previous population was restored.

‘But wouldn’t the productivity of Guanzhong with its infrastructure destroyed not have risen that much?’

Unable to avoid the characteristics of strategists, Pang Tong responded to my doubt with a Zen-like question:

“Do you know what Kongming did first after taking charge of Yizhou’s administration?”

“Wasn’t it a census?”

Even if I’m ignorant about administration, I know that much. I couldn’t help but know because the census was conducted in cooperation with the military.

“Ho, correct answer. Then what’s next?”

“Next… At that time I was going to Basha Commandery with Father, so…”

“He repaired Dujiangyan.”

Dujiangyan. It’s a massive water conservancy project built in the Qin dynasty era that acts as both a levee and irrigation canal.

It can be called the lifeblood of Yizhou, and it’s because of this that Yizhou is able to function as the current Han’s largest granary boasting enormous yields.

Li Bing, who built Dujiangyan, was revered as a god of water, and after Dujiangyan was completed, Sichuan was called “the Land of Abundance”, its value beyond imagination.

Zhuge Liang also put in considerable effort to repair this Dujiangyan. And he even went so far as to build Zhuge Weir in Nanzhong, benchmarking Dujiangyan.

The fact that Ba-Shu and Nanzhong, which make up Yizhou, boast production levels that can support Han is largely due to such water conservancy facilities.

“I’m the same. Immediately after taking office in Guanzhong, the first thing I did was to look after Zhengguo Canal.”

If Dujiangyan is the lifeblood of Yizhou, Zhengguo Canal is the lifeblood of Guanzhong.

Just as famines disappeared in Yizhou after Dujiangyan was built, they say famines also disappeared in Guanzhong after Zhengguo Canal was created.

I understood why Liu Bei left Ma Liang, Wu Yi, and Father in place even though he had Pang Tong.

It must have been a calculation that while Father and Wu Yi handle military affairs, one of Ma Liang and Pang Tong oversees Guanzhong’s administration, while the other is in charge of repairing Zhengguo Canal.

“Though I can’t say it’s perfect yet, it’s sufficient to function. This year’s harvest should be at least 50% more than last year, possibly up to double if we’re lucky.”

“That’s amazing. Then it really might be possible to raise an army in a year.”

“Haha, Advisor Ma worked hard. Actually, Kongming is more knowledgeable about these things than me, so Advisor Ma received special instruction from Kongming to repair Zhengguo Canal. You know how meticulous Kongming’s nature is.”

“Hahaha… I know.”

It reminds me of when I was learning the Eight Formation Diagram. Still, I had it easy. At that time, Zhuge Liang was more focused on writing a memorial for Liu Bei’s ascension to the throne than teaching me the Eight Formation Diagram.

However, I could well imagine how great Ma Liang’s efforts must have been, receiving one-on-one tutoring on water conservancy facilities from Zhuge Liang.

“In my opinion, His Majesty seems to have calculated very meticulously. He would have received a report on the repair of Zhengguo Canal from Advisor Ma, so he must have judged that one year would be possible.”

Though Liu Bei might seem like his head has gone off and he’s just rushing in recklessly, Liu Bei too is a veteran of war.

Even in the original history where Guan Yu met an even more miserable end than now, he set out after preparing for a year and a half.

He must have thought that the current situation, with Guanzhong recovered and able to receive support from Jingzhou, is much better so one year would be possible though tight.

‘At first he really seemed ready to raise an army immediately. If he changed his mind at Father’s dissuasion, it means he calculated that one year would be enough in that short time. Liu Bei’s mental agility is considerable too.’

If not for that, he would have long since perished like other warlords.

The fact that he survived such adversity and even ascended to emperor leaves no room to doubt Liu Bei’s abilities.

“Though he said one year, in fact the preparation time should be seen as shorter than that.”

“I suppose so. At the earliest as soon as spring planting ends, at the latest by early summer, he will raise an army.”

This is Liu Bei who declared he would offer the heads of his enemies on Guan Yu’s memorial altar next year. To keep that word, he needs to start the war before then.

“Still, thanks to the Imperial Uncle securing Hongnong Commandery, marching to Luoyang has become much easier.”

“I wanted to secure up to Xin’an County past Quyanggu, but Sima Yi came out faster than expected.”

If we had obtained up to Xin’an County, only Hangu Pass would remain blocking the way from Guanzhong to Luoyang. Though Hangu Pass is formidable, it’s still too risky to rely on that alone, so Sima Yi must have moved urgently.

The pursuit seemed lacking, but it was because he was busy dealing with Pang Tong striking his flank like this and didn’t have time to pay attention to us.

“By the way, how did you defeat Cao Zhen? I heard you used separated general wagers.”

“Hahaha, the separated general wager was bait.”

The separated general wager was bait. Well, even if he mocked Cao Zhen’s weakness of obesity, Cao Zhen isn’t such a shoddy general to fall for that easily.

Though he has the advantage of being a relative, Cao Zhen rose to become one of Cao Pi’s Five Advisors. It didn’t seem likely he would completely fall for the separated general wager and come out of Hongnong.

“Then…?”

“Let’s stop the small talk here, and go inside. I’ll tell you the details inside.”