Chapter 126: The Stellar Gala 7

Humans cannot foresee the future, leading to incompleteness and uncertainty.

And in pursuit of stability amidst this uncertainty, humans arrived at an intriguing concept:

A method of trade devised to minimize future losses and secure stability.

In the East, it began with rice.

In the West, with corn…

The most fundamental yet indispensable agricultural produce – the farming industry itself.

Agriculture, the oldest and most essential industry in human history.

However, separate from its long history, agriculture was not only vital for survival but an industry fraught with immense instability.

To farm, one needed fertile land, crops to sow, and a labor force to sustain it.

But no matter how good the land, how fine the seeds, or how diligent and strong the workers…

The most crucial factor determining the harvest was ultimately the heavens.

In other words, the unpredictable fate known as the weather.

Of course, the concept of an average climate existed, leading to the development of major cities in regions conducive to farming.

However, even this average climate was not always so benign upon closer examination.

If the temperature was slightly higher or lower than usual, or if there was too little or too much rainfall, a single day out of the entire year could erase all the hard work invested.

A single misstep out of 365 days could lead to irreparable damage – the great gamble of never knowing when, how, or in what manner disaster might strike.

In fact, history is replete with instances where sudden climatic changes ruined harvests, ultimately leading to the extreme consequence of national collapse.

Moreover, not only did poor harvests in lean years pose a threat, but overly bountiful bumper crops could also economically devastate those engaged in agriculture by depressing grain prices – further compounding the uncertainty inherent in farming.

To alleviate this uncertainty, nations exhaustively endeavored to develop astronomy and cultural practices like religion.

Yet despite such efforts, even in the modern era with advanced weather forecasting technology, the uncertainties of agriculture remained elusive.

An essential yet inherently risky industry, agriculture…

And in relation to this, merchants devised a trading method to minimize the uncertainty.

The method itself was simple.

Let us say there is a farmer growing crops and a merchant who purchases and transports those crops to the market for sale.

The farmer, cultivating the crops, cannot be certain how the year’s harvest will unfold but wishes to secure stable profits as much as possible.

The merchant, on the other hand, aims to maximize profits by purchasing the crops and selling them in the market.

In this situation, the merchant makes the farmer an offer:

To purchase the entirety of the farmer’s forthcoming harvest at a slightly discounted rate based on the current average market price.

In this scenario, the farmer secures stability by ensuring a fixed revenue regardless of the year’s yield.

Even if issues arise and the harvest is poor, the farmer has already received payment, minimizing their risk.

The merchant, conversely, may incur losses if the harvest is poor but stands to reap the full profits if it is bountiful.

The farmer sacrifices potential gains for stability, while the merchant assumes risk in exchange for the prospect of greater rewards.

A method to operate the agricultural industry more stably.

Through contracts and credibility, one party pursues maximum stability while the other seeks maximum profit. This trading practice occupies a significant role in modern agriculture.

Over time, its scope expanded beyond just agriculture to encompass all resources – oil, iron ore, fisheries, and various other industries – evolving into a vast financial market.

And presently…

People refer to this trading system, originally intended to secure stability, by the following name:

Futures Trading

Ironically, what began as a means for stability now represents a terrifying risk for many modern investors – a hell beneath hell, as it were.

As mentioned earlier, futures trading originated to provide stability for resource producers like farmers. However, the introduction of the investment concept… or rather, the notion of speculation, transformed it into a path leading countless people to utter ruin.

Originally created for producers to assume risk in pursuit of gains, and with predetermined delivery and sales periods that preclude the possibility of a ‘zombie’ state, the futures market exhibited far greater volatility than even the stock market.

While gains of 40-60% might be considered a jackpot in stocks, futures could yield profits of 400-600%… but conversely, a single misstep could saddle one with the producers’ entire losses, plunging into inescapable debt.

Futures trading epitomized the extreme of high-risk, high-return.

However…

I had no need to greatly concern myself with the risks posed by futures trading.

Ultimately, all risks stemmed from the uncertainty of not knowing the future.

As one privy to the original work, fully cognizant of the forthcoming events, I could minimize the risks of futures trading. In fact, my past experience as a Holy Knight, amassing thousands of talents through this method, had already proven its effectiveness in this world.

Despite limited capital at the time, I had succeeded in accumulating a considerable fortune recognized within the city.

And now…

As the heir of Bohemia and the de facto leader of the Heretical Alliance, I could operate with funds on an incomparable scale.

Bohemia’s already abundant economic might, coupled with the support of the alliance and the addition of Dragonian power…

If I deployed these resources for ‘futures’ trading, the potential gains would be truly staggering.

‘With such funds at my disposal, turning the tide of this unfavorable situation would become entirely feasible. Although lying low for now, with proper support, a certain individual will emerge who can utterly devour the situation.’

Of course, there was no need to explain these intricate plans to the Dragonian Empress outright.

Not only would the people of this era likely struggle to comprehend such explanations, but it also risked creating an adversarial impression.

While full support would be ideal, making excessive demands and overplaying my hand could backfire spectacularly.

Additionally, my past experience of being expelled from the Holy Knights for strange money-making practices served as a cautionary tale. Above all, this too constituted a trade secret that warranted some discretion.

Thus, under the pretext of ‘support’, I guided the Dragonian Empire into substantive futures trading arrangements.

Estelle, unaware of the precise details, simply relayed my words to the Empress.

Of course, coupled with the content about drawing in foreign nations, the proposal itself carried sufficient credibility. And as the Empress had already decided to provide support, she accepted my plan without much suspicion.

At least, that was how it appeared to me.