Ch.95Chapter 95. Battle of Hispil Castle (5)

“……!”

Upon hearing my words, Ginor’s expression momentarily turned pale—

Then, gradually, doubt began to settle on the old man’s face.

Setting aside his initial surprise, he questioned my confident assertion that “Lady Anima will be defeated in this battle.”

“Look here, Swen. After that completely incomprehensible Zen riddle, how did you arrive at such a conclusion?”

Yurie is not Luna.

Simply going to her and explaining things wouldn’t work. She’d probably react just like Ginor.

To persuade her, I needed to flesh out this conclusion.

But then.

Why should I go to such lengths to help the Aeshus army?

I’ve already fulfilled my duty for the kindness I’ve received. No, considering that Irene risked her life to carry out the operation, I should be the one receiving something from her.

If I still need to help, what would be the reason?

I don’t need to look far—I’m currently affiliated with the Aeshus army.

Based on what Anima told me and the atmosphere of this country,

It was clear that if something happened to her, the Aeshus army would rapidly collapse.

No, not just her. The same would happen if something befell Erinandorf, Emma, or Epinel.

It’s obvious. They would probably recklessly commit troops in the name of revenge. They might ride the momentum of vengeance to early victories, but in a prolonged war, they would inevitably lose to the significantly stronger Serpina army. This was so obvious it didn’t even require my intelligence to predict.

The exceptional bond between these five and their solidarity forged through rising from the bottom together has its advantages, I suppose.

In these chaotic times, having people who genuinely trust and support each other is an asset in itself.

Especially in a world where deception is commonplace and betraying one’s lord isn’t even considered a major flaw.

Just look at how Irene and I are getting along without much difficulty.

However.

The disadvantages were just as evident. The man before me, Ginor, was proof—despite his abilities, he was strangely kept in check.

As I thought earlier, if one of the five were to fall, the country would rapidly collapse—that much was obvious.

If Yurie lost her judgment and began to rampage, wouldn’t that be the same as losing the safe haven where Irene and I currently reside?

And beyond that, looking at the bigger picture from my position—

It wouldn’t be good if the Aeshus army went berserk too early and got devoured by the Serpina army.

The ideal situation for the future Lunarian army would be a balance maintained between Brans, Serpina, and Aeshus in the central continent.

‘So I need to step up here.’

Having decided to persuade, it was time to lay the groundwork.

To convince my lord, I needed to clarify the situation right here and now.

So the person I need to persuade now is Ginor.

“Lord Ginor. Would you come over here?”

Ginor looked at me very quizzically instead of answering—

But soon approached me with a serious expression.

Hisfil Castle.

It reminded me of drawing maps with Irene at home in Anel Castle.

Hisfil Castle was located in the border region adjacent to the Charam army at that time.

Which meant I had drawn maps of that area.

I searched for the right map in my possession, took it out, and spread it on the table.

“Battles ultimately take place on land.”

I’ve played this game for over ten thousand hours.

I know almost every possible scenario. If Anima’s defeat is nearly certain, I should be able to figure out exactly how she will be defeated.

‘Let’s see.’

If Anima departs from Raclaine Castle, there are three routes.

But I didn’t need to examine each route.

She would definitely choose the shortest route, going straight up in a direct line.

Though somewhat rugged, it’s the path that takes the least time.

“Of the three paths, which do you think would be best for a surprise attack?”

“…You seem to keep asking questions without giving proper answers. What exactly are you plotting?”

“I’m trying to explain precisely why Lady Anima will be defeated.”

“You call that an explanation?”

Ginor still wore an expression of incomprehension.

From his perspective, I probably seemed to be speaking in riddles.

What should I do here?

I could slowly explain my situation, but… now was the time to be more assertive.

“Yes. Please tell me. I promise to give you an explanation you’ll find convincing.”

“……”

If I had just been commissioned into the Aeshus army, this approach might not have worked.

But I had already achieved several ‘results,’ and Ginor had observed the process from up close.

While I didn’t know his exact thoughts, the fact that he was trying to marry his adopted daughter to me suggested he might take my words seriously.

Ginor silently contemplated for a moment while looking at me—

Then, as if having made up his mind, he slowly nodded and finally began to answer my question.

“…If it’s a surprise attack, naturally one would take the middle path, the shortest route.”

“Is that so? I think the same.”

It wasn’t difficult to predict Anima’s judgment.

From her perspective, she would attempt a ‘surprise attack’ while Hisfil Castle was empty.

In that case, she would clearly try to arrive as quickly as possible, even if it meant pushing her soldiers somewhat.

“Wait. Since you’ve asked me a question, let me ask one in return. That’s better than a one-sided explanation, isn’t it?”

“Go ahead.”

“If it’s a surprise attack, that means Lady Anima has secured some basis for such an attack. What exactly is that basis?”

In other words, he’s asking what Anima is relying on to launch this attack?

I lack information to make a proper guess.

I need any information I can get about this woman named Anima Ingram.

“To answer that, I need to ask about Lady Anima.”

“You need to ask in order to answer, is that it?”

Ginor mulled over those words several times before providing his answer.

“…Anima, as you know, Swen, was the national strategist of the Aeshus army before I arrived. If we’re talking about talent, I believe she has it. Though I couldn’t observe her for long, she must have been the one who shaped the trajectory of the Aeshus army from behind the scenes.”

“I see. What about her personality?”

“Since I left my position quickly, I don’t know in detail… but I do know she’s extremely cautious. Shortly after she was appointed as strategist, I reviewed all the strategies and plans she had proposed, and they all prioritized minimizing the possibility of failure. She also tended to withdraw immediately from strategies that seemed impossible.”

“Cautious, you say. That’s enough. It helps. Then she must have verified whether there were troops in the castle or not.”

“That seems most plausible.”

With a cautious personality, she wouldn’t have attempted a surprise attack recklessly.

Yet, according to my reasoning, she will be defeated in that battle.

There were many possibilities, but they could be condensed into two main scenarios:

First, encountering some natural disaster.

Second, troops actually being present in Hisfil Castle.

Let’s exclude natural disasters for now.

Without the ability to predict them accurately, I couldn’t rule out the possibility of lightning or a meteorite striking the Aeshus army, no matter how low the probability. Even if events unfolded that way, the result of defeat wouldn’t change.

However, I needed to convince Ginor now, and ultimately Yurie.

Imagine saying with a serious face, “Lady Anima will be defeated because lightning will strike her troops.”

How could Ginor, let alone Yurie, possibly take such a claim seriously?

Even though I’m someone who once called down a meteorite from the sky, such an outlandish claim about natural disasters would be hard to believe.

So it couldn’t be a natural disaster; it needed to be a more plausible story that anyone could believe.

That leaves the second option—

“There are troops in Hisfil Castle… troops she couldn’t detect despite checking.”

“Undetectable troops? Once again, you’re saying things I can’t understand.”

“But it’s true. Since troops can’t appear from the sky or disappear into the ground… they must be hidden somewhere…”

As I examined the map intently, something caught my eye.

“…Huh?”

“?”

Near Hisfil Castle and Raclaine Castle, specifically to the southeast of Hisfil Castle, there was a not-too-high mountain range surrounded by forests.

I pointed to that location.

“If troops were to be hidden… it would be here.”

If they were hidden there, it would add credibility to the fact that “Anima will be defeated.” It’s the perfect place to launch a surprise attack on the rear.

“An ambush? …But there’s something strange about that.”

“What is it?”

“You just asserted that ‘Anima will be defeated.’ But Anima is leading more than 50,000 troops. To defeat her, wouldn’t there need to be at least that many troops in ambush? It doesn’t seem possible to hide that many troops in that area.”

As he said, it would be difficult to hide an army of over 50,000 in this area.

Let’s say they somehow managed it.

But while those troops move down to attack from the rear, how would they defend the empty Hisfil Castle?

This scenario doesn’t conclusively explain why Anima would definitely be defeated.

But an ambush still seems right…

Given the definitive prediction, I need more convincing evidence.

What am I missing?

‘Let’s change perspective.’

That’s as far as I can go with predicting Anima’s actions.

Now, let me think as if I were Serpina.

“The fact that they set up an ambush… suggests that the Serpina army anticipated an attack from the Aeshus army. Would you agree?”

“Agree or not, there’s no other possibility, is there? There’s no need to set up an ambush without purpose.”

“Then… Serpina has laid a trap…?”

“A trap?”

Yes.

As I voiced my thoughts, the picture became clearer.

This is Serpina’s trap.

“They deliberately emptied the castle to lure Lady Anima. Even the cautious Anima was made to believe there were no troops in the castle.”

“A trap.”

Ginor looked at the map, checking the spot I pointed to several times.

“So you’re saying they set a trap by deploying troops to ambush at this point in the mountain range, and that’s why she’ll be defeated?”

“Wait. That’s not enough. If Lady Anima was deceived… it wouldn’t be from the south where the mountains are, but from another direction…?”

‘Huh?’

That’s right.

Anima must have moved after confirming that the Serpina army had marched somewhere.

But where?

I checked the map again.

Raclaine Castle is below Hisfil Castle.

To the right, past difficult terrain, is a fork leading to Jelstrom Castle and Valhart Castle.

Above is a castle belonging to the Serpina army.

And to the left… is a castle belonging to the Brans army.

The top is irrelevant. The Serpina army had no reason to move troops to the rear. If they had, Anima would have won, not lost. That contradicts my predicted conclusion.

If it’s to the right, Anima sending troops to Hisfil Castle would lead to victory. They could intercept from Valhart Castle. Besides, messengers would have arrived reporting enemy troops approaching from that direction. So that’s excluded.

If it’s downward, that’s Raclaine Castle. From our army’s perspective, there’s no reason to go out for interception when we could simply fortify the castle. Anima, having served as a strategist, would have this much sense.

What remains is the left.

Brans army territory.

“The Serpina army attempted to march toward Brans army territory. That’s why… Lady Anima seized the opportunity. There’s no other explanation.”

If they were to march out, this would be the most natural direction.

In fact, it was the only option for Anima to consider a ‘surprise attack.’

So… they pretended to march left, then quickly redirected their troops to the ambush site?

‘No. There’s not enough time.’

Based on the map, they would inevitably encounter Anima’s forces before reaching the ambush site.

Even returning as quickly as possible, they would only reach about the midpoint between Hisfil Castle and the Aeshus army.

In that case, Anima could potentially win depending on the situation. It would mean the enemy troops came out instead of fortifying.

If they did fortify, it would be even stranger. From Anima’s perspective, she could simply withdraw her troops, making all these complicated movements seem pointless.

And just as I was thinking that far:

“Hmm… when exactly do they set up the ambush? Are you suggesting the Serpina army has more troops than we’re aware of?”

“…Ah.”

Hearing his words, I involuntarily let out a sound.

At that moment, my foggy mind suddenly became incredibly clear.

“Lord Ginor, you’re right.”

“…What?”

“The ambushing troops… already exist!”

“!!!”

[The Serpina army’s forces aren’t just the main force at Hisfil Castle.]

With that thought, all of Serpina’s actions fell neatly into place.

It even explained why they deliberately emptied the castle.

All their troop movements weren’t pointless but part of a plan from the beginning.

“First, they deliberately move troops westward to make the Aeshus army mobilize.”

“After confirming Lady Anima’s departure, they quickly withdraw and head south of Hisfil Castle. They may not reach the ambush site, but it doesn’t matter. There are already troops in ambush.”

“At this point, the Aeshus army can either stand and fight or flee—it doesn’t matter. The additional ambushing troops can surround them from the rear.”

“That’s why—”

Now I could finally see it clearly.

The picture of Anima’s defeat.

“Lady Anima will be defeated in this battle.”