Ch.71Chapter 71. Defense of the Western Fortress of Bhalharat (4)

I organized my thoughts.

If I assume that the news of 50,000 advance troops being deployed is itself a “bait,” it wasn’t difficult to guess why specifically 50,000.

Even though it’s a fortress rather than a castle, defenders fundamentally have a significant advantage over attackers in battle.

It’s not that we couldn’t hold them off, but we couldn’t overwhelm them either, so wouldn’t both sides just end up in a drawn-out war of attrition?

Ginor must have had this in mind when he argued that “if this becomes a prolonged battle, our army will be the losing side.”

For the Brans army to secure a definite advantage, they should have brought at least 70,000-80,000 troops.

They could probably scrape together 20,000-30,000 more soldiers from various places, given their large population and wide borders with many deployed troops.

In that case, Epinel would likely have abandoned resistance and returned to the castle. Holding out in the castle with the combined forces would have been a much more rational decision.

Right there, I could read something like an “answer.”

‘Since 50,000 was the number that would prevent Epinel from retreating… did they match the numbers?’

If the goal was to tie down our forces including myself in this fortress and give the impression that “it’s worth trying,” the number 53,000 was exquisitely perfect.

It was essentially proven by the fact that Epinel took the bait.

‘Wait a minute.’

If that advance force is bait aimed at us, then their objective isn’t this fortress.

There would be no reason to send bait to the fortress otherwise.

Then what is their true objective?

Here again, I brought in two absolutely correct predictions.

Withdrawing troops is “somewhat close to the right measure.”

Victory in battle depends on “heaven’s will” – meaning it depends on how our army acts.

We win if our army chooses “something.”

And withdrawing troops from the fortress to retreat to Valhart Castle is “somewhat close to the correct action.”

‘Including withdrawing troops… do we need to do something to win?’

But if so, isn’t the phrasing a bit strange?

We need to do something to win?

We lose if we don’t do something?

‘A situation where we lose if we don’t do something… a situation where we only win if we do something…’

Once more, I began compiling all possible courses of action the Brans army might take.

The more impossible options I eliminated, the more clearly the truth would shine.

What would the Brans army do?

How would they act to produce these two predictions?

Once more…

* * *

“…Hmm.”

Chel was shocked after hearing Farfalle’s explanation and couldn’t say anything.

“What do you think?”

“Rather than what I think… should I say it’s too bold… is it really possible…?”

“It is possible. No, this is the only way. To deliver a decisive blow to the Aeshus army quickly without waiting for 30,000 reinforcements.”

Farfalle spoke in an extremely serious tone.

“Of course, we can only use this method right now, at this single moment. I understand that the risk of failure is by no means small. However, I believe now is precisely the time to make a decision.”

“Hmm…”

Chel stroked his chin thoughtfully.

Farfalle’s proposal.

Certainly, it was the most unconventional yet most efficient method available in the current situation.

The only problem was the enormous loss our army would suffer if it failed.

With over 30,000 soldiers already having switched from the Brans army to the Aeshus army due to Irene’s betrayal, if we were to lose all our current forces as well, truly irreversible consequences could follow.

Wouldn’t it become a question of whether the southern or northern border would be breached?

“…It seems too reckless… I still think slowly attacking the fortress head-on would be safer. Of course, Swen’s ability is concerning, but as you said, if he could use that ability freely, wouldn’t they have invaded Raclaine Castle long ago? I’ve heard that even Swen himself said it wasn’t an ability he could use at will when he was in our army.”

“Then, let’s assume as you say that Swen cannot use his ability.”

Farfalle placed his hand on the map on the table again and began explaining.

“We would win in a prolonged battle, but we don’t know how long it would take. The Aeshus army has many commanders with outstanding abilities. Of course, if we keep dragging it out, we’ll eventually win, but it’s uncertain whether the southern nations and Serpina’s northern forces will remain idle in the meantime. Given our lord’s firm intention to punish the Aeshus army first, I believe the correct answer is to resolve this as quickly as possible. And the only way to avoid dragging this out is the method I just proposed.”

“But… isn’t there a possibility that your strategy won’t work?”

“Of course there is, but I consider that probability to be extremely low.”

“I’d like to hear your reasoning, if you don’t mind.”

Farfalle nodded and said:

“The current fortress commander, Epinel Rosenkroz, is a combat-oriented general with an unyielding personality. She prefers direct confrontation rather than relying on schemes or strategies. She’s likely to insist on defending the fortress. Given her high standing in the Aeshus army, her opinion will naturally be accepted. This information is reliable, as I’ve gathered and cross-verified it while stationed at the eastern border region.”

“Then ultimately…”

“Yes. Although the loss we would suffer in case of failure would be painful, even in a direct confrontation, we don’t have much chance of victory when we don’t know exactly what Swen’s ability is. If both options carry risks, shouldn’t we pursue the one with the greater potential reward?”

“…”

“Lord Chel. That is all I have to say. Even if you don’t follow my suggestion, I will support you wholeheartedly.”

Although Farfalle held quite a high position as a state strategist, ultimately it was General Chel’s responsibility to command in the field.

After contemplating for a while, Chel nodded as if having made a decision and said:

“…We will-“

* * *

I cleared my mind completely.

Then, I inserted only the two facts that came from my recent prediction.

That the outcome of the battle depends on our army’s choice.

That withdrawing troops from here is somewhat the right action.

These two propositions are absolute “truths.” An intellect of 100 only speaks facts.

In other words, both withdrawing soldiers and doing something are necessary for victory in this battle.

I stared at the map for a long time.

The forests widely distributed around.

Raclaine Castle. The fortress. And the narrow, straight passage leading to Valhart Castle.

Slowly examining the map-

I eliminated possibilities one by one.

All the strategies the Brans army could use against us.

All the countermeasures our army could employ against the Brans army.

As I eliminated them all… only a single “possibility” remained, shining intensely in the darkness.

‘…!’

That was the moment.

My mind, tangled with complex thoughts, suddenly cleared, and I felt I understood why the intellect of 100 had made such predictions.

Something like divine revelation… powerfully enveloped my body.

“…A surprise attack.”

I unconsciously uttered those words.

Yes.

A surprise attack.

The enemy’s target is not this fortress.

The advance troops sent to the fortress are bait.

The enemy’s target is the capital and only stronghold of the Aeshus army, currently depleted of forces due to the battle with the Alepel army-

‘The enemy plans to launch a surprise attack on Valhart Castle.’

The number of deployed troops was likely not even 50,000. Spreading false information isn’t difficult.

Even if it were true, the forces arriving at the fortress would be fewer. The remaining soldiers could simply march through the forest, bypassing toward Valhart Castle.

With that realization, all the previously disconnected pieces started falling into place.

So that’s why.

That’s why the intellect of 100 said it [depends on heaven’s will].

Of course, if we prepare for the surprise attack, we’ll win. But if we fail to prepare, we’ll lose.

That’s why the intellect of 100 said [somewhat close].

Withdrawing troops from the fortress to station them at Valhart Castle would at least prevent a surprise attack.

But the Brans army isn’t stupid. If they confirm reinforcements have arrived, they’ll withdraw their forces without engaging.

Ginor’s proposal was a half-answer. It would preserve our forces safely, but we couldn’t damage the Brans forces either – a kind of status quo.

Reconsidering the phrase “somewhat close,” no other words could better describe the situation.

The real answer.

The “most efficient answer for the Aeshus army” predicted by the intellect of 100 was – to prepare for the surprise attack and counter-attack.

Soldiers whose surprise attack fails will fall into confusion. Dealing with troops whose formation has collapsed would be as easy as eating cake.

A method that preserves our forces while delivering a critical blow to the Brans army.

That meant “preparing for the surprise attack on Valhart Castle.”

‘…Haa.’

I let out a long sigh and leaned back against the chair.

I noticed cold sweat streaming down my entire body.

It felt like walking on thin ice. Extracting what was happening from statements that were absolutely true but completely incomprehensible required tremendous energy.

Nevertheless.

In the end, I succeeded in finding what seemed to be the right path.

‘This is only half the battle.’

That’s right.

At this point of discovery, it was still only half the solution.

This wasn’t the Lunarian army that would almost unconditionally listen to me.

Even if my words were absolutely correct, they would be meaningless if no one heeded them.

Moreover, this was the ruthless Aeshus army, where even someone of Ginor’s caliber had to swallow a bitter pill due to lack of experience.

‘Still, I must persuade them.’

A rookie commander like me probably couldn’t move Epinel’s heart.

Then the person I should approach first is… ultimately Ginor.

He’s a state strategist. Even though Epinel had once rejected Ginor’s opinion, the probability of him convincing her was higher than mine.

‘There’s no time. I need to move quickly.’

I got up and headed toward where Ginor was.