Ch.176Episode 10 – Turn Your Course to the North-Northwest

Information analysis is a complex and challenging field.

It’s not simply about processing collected data or intelligence into information, but rather about describing, explaining, evaluating, and drawing conclusions so that those who need the information can interpret it.

Moreover, the subject changes each time, making it unpredictable. One must consider the types of national interests, how national security and policies relate to intelligence, and even how the consumers reading the report will receive it.

That’s why intelligence agencies divide information analysis into six stages:

1. Setting the topic.

2. Establishing hypotheses.

3. Collecting intelligence to verify hypotheses.

4. Evaluating hypotheses.

5. Selecting hypotheses.

6. Finally, verification and monitoring.

Only after going through these stages and employing both quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques to analyze intelligence does “information” emerge. And there are roughly dozens of analytical techniques.

So information analysis is,

To put it bluntly,

Hard labor.

## Episode 10 – Turn Course North-Northwest

After preparing a late dinner, I sat on the living room sofa and carefully read through the plan Camilla had written.

Tonight’s dinner was water dumpling soup. Not Korean style, but made in the Azerbaijani style.

The main ingredient was lamb. It’s a small dumpling soup with juicy, delicious lamb. I don’t remember the name. The memory is too old and I’ve forgotten.

Slurp. The warm broth travels down my stomach, heating up my insides. With a spoon in my mouth, I carefully turned the pages to avoid getting broth on the paper.

“…Hmm.”

To summarize the lengthy report in one line, it’s this:

She wants to analyze the war situation in the Kiyen Empire-Magic Realm conflict.

She wants to understand the civilian, government, and military situations in the northern region where battles are taking place. Distinguish between safe and dangerous areas. Ultimately, create reference material for future activities by identifying threats in the north. That was Camilla’s desired topic.

I turned my head to look at her sitting at the kitchen table.

“Camilla. How do you plan to collect data?”

“OSINT.”

Camilla, who had been eating dinner, began to explain.

“I checked at the hotel and found that Empire broadcasts were available. There were quite a few conflict-related articles in Abas Broadcasting’s international news and newspaper international sections, especially the Magic Tower.”

“……”

“Also, looking at the Foreign Ministry materials, I found announcements for the safety of travelers going to the Empire and reports from international humanitarian organizations. I’m planning to start by collecting those.”

OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) was Camilla’s burden-free choice because it allows for legal information collection, is very cost-effective, and easily accessible.

However.

“If you’ve taken national intelligence lectures, you should know OSINT’s disadvantages, right?”

Camilla dipped half a potato in salt and swallowed it whole.

“Open source intelligence is easily accessible, so there’s a high possibility of collecting excessive data, and the quality of intelligence is lower compared to other means. So its reliability is very low. Right?”

“Yes.”

That was correct.

OSINT is easily accessible even to civilians like Camilla, but that’s precisely the problem—it’s too easy.

You’ll regularly see idiots posting photos of African government forces fighting rebels from years ago, claiming they’re from the India-China border conflict on Twitter or Facebook, or attention-seekers tweeting “I just heard from my friend~” without even providing photos or videos.

Materials from credible media outlets or private organizations are somewhat better, but seeing their occasional mistakes confirms that OSINT isn’t entirely reliable.

Intelligence agencies recognize this problem too.

That’s why they have departments specializing in OSINT, create reference materials for the credibility of information sources, and even cross-verify the same data through different means like HUMINT (espionage) or TECHINT (phone tapping, satellite surveillance, etc.).

But that’s for intelligence agencies.

If asked whether a civilian like Camilla has such capabilities, even I would have to tilt my head in doubt.

Tsk, I clicked my tongue softly as I wiped my mouth with a tissue.

“Anyway, it’s fine. If you think of it as experience, it’s not bad. I’ll help you, so let’s proceed as planned.”

Camilla, who was pouring ketchup on her potatoes, replied:

“But why is my dinner just potatoes?”

“Weight control.”

“……”

*

And so our full-scale training and preliminary preparation work began.

We tried to use our 24 hours efficiently, breaking it down to the minute.

When we opened our eyes at dawn, the first thing we did was rush to the TV to watch the news. Then we turned on the news reported by the Empire’s major media outlets.

“The Kiyen media is divided into 12 major newspapers and 8 broadcasting stations. This excludes radio stations and local newspapers with ties to specific regions.”

“What are the media outlets’ political leanings?”

“Most media outlets are centrist-conservative, hardline conservative, or centrist. They’re mainly loyal to the imperial family. There are about two moderate-radical reform-oriented broadcasters, but their executives and journalists often face white terror, so they’re quite subdued. Of course, officially there’s only one government-run national broadcaster.”

Camilla listened to the news broadcast by a centrist Empire station.

After getting up at dawn and scanning the news, she ate breakfast while watching recordings of other media outlets that had been automatically recorded overnight.

I handed Camilla Empire newspapers sent by the Foreign Ministry and articles written by foreign correspondents from various countries’ media outlets.

“There are so many articles. But why isn’t this one loading?”

“It’s because of the high resolution. These articles are from diplomatic missions in the Mauritanian continent, where many countries don’t have properly established communication networks, so this happens sometimes.”

Camilla stared intently at the screen while brushing her teeth. It took about 2 minutes for one line to appear, and a bit longer for the next line, so reading a single article required some patience.

By the way, the articles were in their original language, but neither of us needed translations, so we could read them comfortably.

“This won’t work. Since it’ll take time to download the data, let’s start training first.”

After breakfast and reviewing the news and articles, we began firearms training.

Like yesterday, Camilla practiced mobile shooting, alternating between rifles and pistols. When I pushed the vehicle from behind and blew the whistle, she quickly jumped out, took cover, and started shooting at the targets.

While she fired hundreds of rounds, I brought a terminal outside to organize data.

Even as white breath naturally escaped my mouth, I thawed my frozen hands and typed away.

Seeing this, Camilla, who was taking a short break, said:

“Don’t you have gloves? It’s so cold… Should I take mine off for you?”

“No, keep your gloves on. I can’t type with gloves on. This isn’t like a laptop.”

“That’s too bad… It would be nice if you had something like a rugged laptop. A senior who worked at the UN after graduating always carried a DELL laptop.”

“DELL’s rugged laptops are good. I used one when I was in the intelligence service.”

After firearms training, we had an early lunch.

Unlike me, who had been typing on the terminal in the snow, Camilla, who had been running around vigorously, said she was hot and took off her bulletproof vest.

She placed the sweat-soaked bulletproof vest in front of the fireplace, but since it was midwinter and we couldn’t ventilate, a musty smell permeated the house.

I wanted to tell her to go wash up, but there wasn’t time. While Camilla sat at the table reading the downloaded materials, I held my nose and heated up retort food in the microwave.

“Let’s eat lunch quickly and finish.”

“Yes.”

Camilla stuffed twisted spaghetti into her mouth and scrolled down.

Glancing over, I saw it was an article written by war correspondents from pro-Empire countries. They were among the few journalists who could travel in and out of the northern regions, which even Empire citizens couldn’t freely access.

Camilla read the articles for a long time, chewing her spaghetti.

She was eagerly looking for all kinds of incidents and touching stories from the northern Empire, announcements from military government spokespersons, military unit training and redeployment, and citizen interviews.

She was so focused that she didn’t even go to the bathroom. She probably didn’t even notice that the spaghetti she had briefly set down had become bloated and burst.

“……”

After finishing my portion of spaghetti, I opened the secure terminal to view materials distributed by relevant agencies.

The Empire’s political/economic trends and threat assessment reports prepared by the Foreign Ministry.

Weekly warning forecasts and daily reports produced by the Royal Intelligence Service.

Defense intelligence assessment reports and intelligence memos provided by the Military Intelligence Agency, and so on.

The materials were diverse.

They included documents created by parliament based on what an Abas member of the House of Representatives heard during a visit to the Empire,

Materials produced by domestic intelligence agencies like the Cabinet Security Office or the Special Investigation Bureau,

International aid organization newsletters, letters from the Empire to Abas, and transcripts of international calls made by Abas citizens to relatives living in the Empire. I’m not sure if the last one is legal or illegal. I just know that if it leaks to the press, someone’s going to be screwed.

While staring intently at the screen…

-♪

“What’s that sound?”

“Ah, it’s my phone.”

“You had a phone?”

“I activated it a few days ago.”

A call came in.

It was from my family.

*

The cold winter sky was full of clouds. The weather was already gloomy, and with the addition of dark storm clouds, it felt slightly depressing.

I rubbed my frozen window with my finger and answered the phone.

“Yes, Jerry.”

-‘Oh, you were awake?’

A tired voice came from the other end.

It was a call from my brother Jerry, who works at the Treasury Department.

-‘Where are you now? At the townhouse?’

“No, I stepped out for a bit. It’s my vacation, so I didn’t want to just stay home.”

-‘Who are you with?’

“A friend.”

My brother Jerry muttered in a puzzled voice over the phone.

-‘…You had friends?’

“Oh come on. What nonsense are you saying with this sudden call?”

-‘So touchy.’

The number on the display showed the area code of the Abas capital. That meant Jerry was calling from a landline, not his personal mobile phone.

And Jerry only used the phone when he was in the Treasury Department office.

“You must be doing well if you’re making calls during work hours.”

-‘What’s the problem with a quick call?’

“What do you need?”

Over the phone, I heard the sound of lips parting.

-‘Adela contacted me yesterday because you went out briefly but didn’t return until dawn. That’s why I’m calling.’

“Ah.”

So that was it. I belatedly realized I hadn’t told Adela I’d be staying out overnight. And I hadn’t told Lucia I’d be away either.

“……”

Well, Lucia would understand.

I switched the phone to my other hand and stuck my hand in my pocket.

-‘What on earth are you doing and where?’

“I don’t need permission to stay out overnight during my vacation. I’m not a teenager.”

-‘That’s true. But Adela was worried, so it would be nice if you told her beforehand.’

“Well, alright. I’ll think about it.”

I glanced toward the kitchen. Camilla was carefully examining Foreign Ministry documents with a blanket draped over her shoulders.

“Is that all you wanted to say?”

-‘Hmm. No, I also called to tell you that next week’s family gathering has been postponed.’

“What?”

-‘Dad and Mom’s vacations are slightly misaligned. Mom was easily granted leave from the palace, but Dad’s is slightly delayed due to his schedule. The Treasury Department is so busy these days. With the Magic Tower redevelopment project and investment issues in the Mauritanian continent… There’s also the matter of entering the Eastern market.’

The Abas economy is entirely the responsibility of the Treasury Department. It’s like combining the Ministry of Planning and Finance with the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

So of course they have a lot of work. Treasury Department officials often work overtime and find it difficult to take vacations.

“How long is it postponed?”

-‘Well, about two days?’

My brother Jerry, a Treasury Department official, continued his explanation.

-‘He’ll just handle the urgent matters first, so two days should be enough. Mom will go down to the family home first to prepare, and Dad will come soon after. By the way, Adela and I will go down before Dad arrives. What about you?’

“I’ll go down on my own. I have some things to do.”

-‘Then don’t be late. Don’t keep the family waiting.’

“Yeah.”

-‘See you later.’

My brother Jerry, seeming tired, let out a long yawn and was about to hang up.

“Ah, wait a moment.”

I hurriedly stopped Jerry on the other end of the phone.

“What about that bastard?”

-‘You shouldn’t call your little sister a bastard…’

“Ah, so when is she coming?”

-‘I don’t know. But she said she’d come before Dad’s vacation starts.’

“…I see?”

So that’s what she said.

I hung up with a grin. I thought I heard Jerry’s voice saying “Don’t fight when you’re meeting family after 3 years-” but it didn’t matter.

I turned off the phone and returned to the kitchen with a big smile.

“Why are you smiling? Did something good happen?”

“Yes.”

Camilla tilted her head curiously as she read the materials, but soon muttered “That’s good” and fixed her gaze on the screen.

*

By afternoon, the weather had deteriorated rapidly. A blizzard was raging.

The targets we had set up for shooting practice were buried in snow, and the road we had maintained in case we needed to drive somewhere was covered in snow.

“It’s snowing tremendously. The weather forecast earlier didn’t say it would snow this much.”

Camilla looked out the window with a blanket wrapped around her.

The blanket from the closet had traces of mice nibbling on it, so she had no choice but to use one that was in relatively good condition, turning it inside out.

“Could it be due to the abnormal cold wave making predictions impossible?”

“Or maybe the weather bureau’s forecast was wrong. They might have predicted incorrectly.”

I nodded as I pushed firewood into the fireplace. Her point certainly had merit.

Thanks to the unexpected heavy snowfall, the shooting practice scheduled for the afternoon was canceled.

If it had been an indoor shooting range, we would have continued training regardless of snow or rain, but unfortunately, the training facility at the safe house was outdoors.

We were stuck at home, wrapped in blankets and drinking tea. Even after seeing the windows rattling and the snow piling up with our own eyes, Camilla just giggled, saying “It’s just like being stranded at a mountain lodge in a movie.”

As the kettle on the stove began to boil…

Camilla sipped her cocoa and gently broached the subject.

“What do you think?”

“About what?”

“Does the analysis seem to be going well?”

I nodded as I examined the draft Camilla had written.

Analyze the war situation in the Kiyen Empire-Magic Realm conflict.

Understand the civilian, government, and military situations. Classify safe and dangerous areas. Create reference material for future activities by detecting threats.

Her goal and the subject of the information analysis were quite broad.

So I was concerned.

At first, I wondered if she could handle this topic well and if she could effectively use OSINT, but looking at the documents Camilla had written, those thoughts somewhat disappeared.

I calmly evaluated her analysis.

“To be honest, I was worried at first. It was quite a broad topic. I also wondered how you would set specific goals and hypotheses, and how you would obtain reliable intelligence from government-controlled media.”

But well.

“You did better than expected.”

“Hehe.”

Although the report isn’t complete yet and it’s just a draft, so I can’t easily make a definitive judgment, Camilla handled open source information better than imagined and showed exceptional talent in analysis.

I guess this is why companies hire educated people.

“You’re definitely smart. Most of my British friends were from Oxford, Cambridge, or the London School of Economics. They were really brilliant. They were also creative, coming up with things I never thought of.”

“SIS? Or SS?”

“Some were from SIS, some from DI. I also had a friend from GCHQ.”

Since Camilla is still an undergraduate, she lags behind them, but I think she’ll make a good intelligence officer once she graduates and gets assigned to practical work.

I took a sip of tea and said to Camilla:

“If you have any questions about this information analysis, ask now. We’ll be analyzing all afternoon. Ask while you have the chance.”

“Ah, then…”

Camilla, who had uploaded documents to the terminal, sat next to me.

There was no fragrant, sweet body scent… Instead, there was a musty smell due to the sweat she had shed all day.

Of course, since I was in the same situation, we could only smile awkwardly when our eyes met. Maybe we should have washed up earlier.

To break the awkward atmosphere, Camilla turned on the terminal screen. Then, organizing the documents with her hands, she began her questions.

“First, about issues like road networks or power grids.”

“Yes.”

“Where can I find such data? I want to know specifically how much support in terms of electricity, water, medical supplies, food, and so on is going to the north.”

Camilla displayed a document on the screen and complained.

The document was a report published by an international aid organization stating that medical supplies and food aid to the northern regions of the Empire were severely lacking, power and water supply was unstable, clean drinking water was scarce, and international community support was desperately needed.

There were no specific figures or graphs, just vague text.

“Since it’s from an international aid organization, I think the source’s reliability is high. But without specific figures, I can’t judge the intelligence’s reliability.”

“Hmm.”

I opened the secure terminal. Searching to see if there were any database-related materials uploaded, I found a “Border Conflict Trends Report” distributed by the “Tarkan Republic Consulate General in the Kiyen Empire” just this dawn.

Found it.

“Here’s some material.”

“Oh.”

The “Border Conflict Trends Report” contained a few brief but essential points:

Contaminated water resources, refugee movement route guidance, insufficient heating facilities, the Tarkan Republic’s medical supply support for its “blood ally” the Kiyen Empire, food ration preparations, improved quality of military supplies, government response guidelines, etc.

It was a thoughtful document that included simple charts, graphs, and maps. I used a cable to transfer the data to Camilla’s terminal.

Next.

“What else do you need?”

“Hmm. Could you help me for a moment? There are some materials I don’t understand.”

“Let’s see.”

As Camilla typed on the keyboard, videos and articles containing briefings popped up. Videos of government and military government spokespersons’ briefings played.

While I was quietly focusing on what the spokesperson was saying, Camilla displayed an article next to it.

‘Bahram Times’, a famous pro-Empire media outlet.

“According to this article, northern teachers who opposed government policies held small protests and were arrested. And the military government spokesperson? Anyway, the spokesperson in military uniform defined the unrest as an anti-state act and said they would be punished.”

Camilla asked:

“Protesting under martial law could be considered an anti-state act if that’s what the law says. The question is, why did the teachers protest?”

“…Hmm. That is curious.”

Let’s find out.

I went into the database and searched for a series of measures implemented by the Empire government before and after the declaration of martial law.

After looking through materials from this year to four years ago, a video from the Defense Ministry spokesperson caught my eye.

[While entry to the northern regions under martial law will be controlled, free economic activity as in peacetime will be possible, and the entry of essential personnel and transportation means will be permitted. The military government will do its best for peace and safety…]

Suddenly, something flashed through my mind. I left the video playing and started searching for Kiyen Empire laws.

About 10 minutes later.

I found an interesting clause in the Kiyen Empire’s labor law.

“Employers who delay wage payments and do not pay compensation will be punished according to the law. Also, workers whose wages are in arrears can go on strike according to the freedom of assembly and association guaranteed by the constitution.

However, during wartime, natural disasters, or national crisis situations such as martial law,

Civil servants belonging to all government agencies, including defense, security, law enforcement, and fire rescue, are prohibited from suspending work.”

Meanwhile, Camilla, who had been quietly observing from the side, found a new fact in the Abas Foreign Ministry materials.

“According to this article, the teachers protested because of unpaid wages?”

“Looking at the provisions of the labor law, civil servants are prohibited from protesting under martial law. And according to Empire law, teachers in schools and academies are all civil servants.”

So of course they were arrested after striking. Of course, it’s the Empire’s style to find a way to arrest even legitimate strikers.

Looking at just this, an ordinary person might think, “Ah, those bastards are at it again…” But my thoughts were slightly different.

Civil servants’ wages are in arrears? This is a rather ominous phenomenon.

Camilla seemed to agree as she examined the Tarkan Republic Consulate General’s materials I had sent earlier and blurted out:

“The situation in the north seems more serious than I thought. If civil servants’ wages are in arrears, what’s happening to private sector workers?”

“We don’t know that.”

Empire media wouldn’t report it, and war correspondents from countries friendly to the Empire wouldn’t report it either.

Even if a journalist with a strong sense of justice worked hard to cover it, the editor would cut it out. And soon that journalist would have their press credentials suspended and be arrested by the military police.

I looked through the military government’s press releases to see if there was any mention of foreigners.

“Don’t worry too much. Soon you’ll go to the north and see firsthand what’s happening there.”

“Hmm. So are we going there to help those people?”

Not likely.

Even if the Abas government supports Camilla and Lucia’s “humanitarian relief activities,” the Kiyen Empire government won’t allow it. Dictatorships typically only want to show what they want to show.

But since it felt awkward to say this directly, I could only evade the answer.

“Next. Do you have any other questions?”

“About the movement of Kiyen forces.”

“Yes.”

Several photos and an article appeared on the screen. Camilla pointed to the photos.

“Here, a few months ago, there are photos of an armored unit consisting of tanks and armored vehicles heading north.”

It was a familiar photo.

The unit in the photo was the same armored unit that had appeared near the Magic Tower a few months ago. As I slowly examined the familiar symbol, Camilla pointed to another photo and continued.

This time it showed infantry, not tanks and armored vehicles.

“But just a few weeks ago, an article came out saying that a special forces unit called the ’35th Independent Special Operations Regiment’ was dispatched to the north.”

The 35th Independent Special Operations Regiment.

The Kiyen Empire Army has many special forces units. However, not all of these units are special operations forces.

Just as corps commandos, division reconnaissance teams, or military police special task forces aren’t at the same level as special forces or UDT, the Empire has many units that simply have the word “special” in their name and are classified as special operations.

For reference, all Empire special forces units fall under the Reconnaissance Command.

It’s the same principle as the Russian Military Intelligence Directorate and North Korean Reconnaissance General Bureau commanding special operations forces.

“……”

A special operations unit managed by a military intelligence agency went north. I have a rough idea of what this means.

“It’s probably for counter-espionage operations.”

“Counter-espionage operations?”

“The magic folk are sending armed operatives to strike northern infrastructure. That’s why power, magic power, and water supply aren’t smooth. That’s also why there are disruptions in medical and food supplies. They harass by destroying roads, railways, and blowing up dams.”

“Ah, so this special forces unit was deployed for that reason?”

“I can’t be certain, but it seems so. The 35th Special Regiment is one of the units responsible for initial counter-terrorism measures. They might be rotating with another regiment up there or being additionally deployed.”

That’s all I can say.

If they’re being deployed in rotation, I know which unit is being pulled back to the rear and which special regiments are in the north, but I can’t say that. There’s no reason for Camilla to know that anyway.

I sighed lightly and checked the time. It’s already dinner time.

“It’s time for dinner. Let’s pause and eat first.”

“…Wait a moment.”

Camilla put her hand on my shoulder. I was about to get up to prepare dinner, but I sat back down.

“What is it?”

“Wait.”

Camilla began typing on the terminal with an expression that was hard to read—whether it was serious or something else. Numerous articles and materials appeared and disappeared rapidly.

As if possessed by something, she searched through the materials, and I just stared blankly, wondering what she was up to.

After about 3 minutes.

Camilla, having discovered something, tapped my shoulder and pointed to the screen.

“Look at this.”

“What is it?”

It was an article that had been uploaded just the day before yesterday.

In the small two-column article on the screen, the phrase “Empire special forces stationed in the capital” caught my eye.

Camilla asked:

“How do military units usually move from the southern Empire to the north?”

“They take the railway. They have a military plan to transport infantry units by rail during wartime or martial law.”

“Then how long does it take to move from the southernmost point to the northernmost point?”

“At the fastest, 3 days; at the slowest, about 5 days.”

For reference, the Trans-Siberian Railway takes 7 days to reach its final destination.

Camilla says:

“The special forces unit that departed a few weeks ago to prevent sabotage in the north is still in the capital. Isn’t that strange?”

“……”

“Of course, they might have a different purpose than preventing sabotage… But logically, they wouldn’t deploy special forces to the front lines.”

“That’s right.”

“Then they left the south for another purpose…”

Why are these people stationed in the capital instead of the north?

“……”

“……”

We stared at each other blankly.

Something ominous is happening.

=

Even though they’re criticized as an inefficient agency, the Foreign Ministry demonstrates information gathering capabilities no less impressive than intelligence agencies. The role of the Foreign Ministry is crucial both in the past and present, and it’s said that countries like the United States consider “three options” when intervening in foreign affairs.

Option 1: Diplomacy, Option 2: Military intervention (war), Option 3: Covert operations.

That’s why U.S. intelligence agencies sometimes indirectly refer to covert operations as “the third option.”

The wage arrears-related law mentioned in the text references Article 142 of the Russian Federation Labor Code. It’s interesting content.