In Wei

Liu Bei has proclaimed the Northern Expedition!

That shocking news spread like wildfire, covering the entire Central Plains. While the common people sighed at the rumors of war starting again, the ruling class was different.

“What was expected has come.”

This war was merely a predicted war. Though its timing was earlier than their predictions, preparations were not neglected.

The border defense with Shu Han, which started with Cao Cao being wary of Liu Bei’s rapid rise, was by no means easy to overcome. Just as Shu Han had prepared for this day, they too had been preparing.

They subjugated and pacified the northern ethnic minorities to stabilize their rear, and strengthened their internal affairs through various policies including the Nine-rank System for selecting officials.

Though Cao Pi’s desire was the biggest factor in making the dangerous choice of abdication, it was backed by calculations that they could sufficiently withstand the aftermath.

Therefore, the attitude of those gathered in the meeting hall was calm. And even if preparations were insufficient, those attending the meeting were talents who could calmly grasp the situation and devise countermeasures.

Sima Yi and Chen Qun, who showed outstanding abilities even among Cao Wei’s Four Companions most trusted by Cao Pi.

Zhong Yao, who was dismissed due to the Lü Meng Rebellion but reinstated when Cao Pi ascended to Emperor.

Wang Lang, who rose to Minister of Works for his merit in advising Cao Pi to become Emperor.

Hua Xin, who took charge of Wei’s internal affairs succeeding Xun Yu.

And Jia Xu, who held the position of Grand Commander along with Wang Lang and Hua Xin.

It could be seen as a state council meeting where the Three Excellencies overseeing Wei’s major affairs and Cao Pi’s most trusted ministers were all gathered.

Of course, the one who hosted such a meeting was Cao Pi, who had ascended to Emperor. Seated on the throne, he questioned his ministers:

“How many troops has Liu Bei raised, they say?”

“It is said to be over 100,000, Your Majesty.”

“100,000, 100,000…”

Cao Pi mulled over the scale of troops Liu Bei had mobilized, reflecting on previous wars.

The battle for Hanzhong where Cao Cao and Liu Bei last clashed. At that time, the troops mobilized by both sides were limited to 70,000 for Cao Cao and 50,000 for Liu Bei.

Of course, it’s said there were various difficulties for both sides to put in full effort then, but in just two years, Liu Bei has mobilized more than double the troops.

“Liu Bei has staked everything on this war.”

These were the words of Hua Xin, who as the overseer of internal affairs, gauged Liu Bei’s mobilization power.

Though anyone could guess this seeing the troops Liu Bei raised, Hua Xin saw through even the administrative power underlying that army of 100,000.

The world’s praise of the Sleeping Dragon was not in vain. How long has it been since the last war ended, yet to raise such a large army and make supplies possible? Even Hua Xin himself wasn’t certain if he could have done it.

“That’s right. He has staked everything. So Liu Bei’s military strength won’t stop at 100,000.”

Receiving Hua Xin’s words, Zhong Yao pointed out a part easily overlooked by being dazzled by the number 100,000.

“They say 100,000, but if you include the local troops scattered in various places, it should be seen as more than that.”

“But they can’t remove their defenses against Sun Quan in the end. There’s a precedent, after all. Even if local troops are added, it will probably stop at 20,000 to 30,000 more.”

“The Minister of Works’ words are correct.”

“Since it’s said Liu Bei is leading 40,000 troops towards Jingzhou, if we add Guan Yu’s 30,000, we can consider 70,000 to be the troops on the Jingzhou front.”

“Then about 50,000 are aiming for Guanzhong…”

Hua Xin, Zhong Yao, and Wang Lang, befitting their excellence in administration, analyzed Liu Bei’s army based on the data they remembered.

The approximate population of Yizhou and Jingzhou. The increased production of supplies through facility improvements like embankments and canals. The mobilization power Liu Bei had shown so far.

The results derived after modifications considering variables on top of the basic data showed high accuracy almost approaching the actual state of Liu Bei’s army.

In reality, the total troops Shu Han mobilized for this Northern Expedition was 120,000. It was the result of drawing the maximum from Jingzhou, Yizhou, and Hanzhong. The large army created after rallying even ethnic minorities gave no small burden to Wei.

Cao Pi, who had been quietly listening to the conversation of the three, opened his mouth once the outline was roughly grasped:

“Does Liu Bei personally advancing to Jingzhou mean his goal is Luoyang?”

The answer was split into three.

Wang Lang and Chen Qun said Luoyang, where Liu Bei is personally campaigning, is their true objective.

Sima Yi and Zhong Yao said the personal campaign is bait and their real intention lies in Chang’an and Guanzhong.

And Hua Xin said both are bait and they aim to secure Liangzhou for sure and aim for a prolonged war.

Their opinions clearly showed each person’s values.

Wang Lang and Chen Qun, who emphasized justification, saw Liu Bei’s proclamation as Emperor after occupying Luoyang as an even bigger move.

On the other hand, pragmatists Sima Yi and Zhong Yao placed high importance on Guanzhong with its high geographical value.

In Hua Xin’s case, he revealed his aspect as an internal affairs manager who had to prioritize stability above all.

All three arguments had their own logic and basis, and since there were actions of Liu Bei that could be interpreted that way, it was difficult to decisively determine which was correct.

However, the opinion that Luoyang was the most dangerous in terms of justification, and Guanzhong was the most valuable region objectively, was a perception shared by all.

“I’ll exclude the Minister of Works’ opinion. We can recover Yongzhou and Liangzhou anytime even if we lose them temporarily. So in the end, it’s a matter of whether Luoyang or Chang’an is the main force… Grand Commander. Come to think of it, you haven’t said anything so far. What do you think?”

The person who could be said to have the highest position in this place except Cao Pi was Jia Xu. As one of the Three Excellencies and with the merit of making Cao Cao choose Cao Pi as successor, Jia Xu’s contributions were on a different level from anyone else.

But he lowered himself the higher his position and refrained from interacting with others, voluntarily choosing solitude. He didn’t intervene much in state affairs either, always keeping silent on matters outside his duties.

The military authority held by the Grand Commander was also transferred to the position of Grand Marshal appointed to Cao Ren, so Jia Xu had been keeping a low profile until now, but this time he couldn’t do so.

The imugi who had awakened from a long hibernation, who had refused to become a dragon himself, brought out his profound wisdom to the world.

“Liu Bei is using shallow tricks.”

“As expected, the Grand Commander sees right through the innermost thoughts of a miscellaneous worker like Liu Bei! Tell me in detail.”

“Their main attack will be on Guanzhong, eight or nine times out of ten.”

Though he said eight or nine out of ten, Jia Xu seemed to be ten out of ten certain.

“Why is that?”

“Their attack this time is based on the Longzhong Plan that Zhuge Liang supposedly presented to Liu Bei. According to that, prioritizing Guanzhong is a self-evident principle, so if they truly aimed for Luoyang, they would have carried out a feint of attacking Guanzhong.”

“Liu Bei personally taking the field is to divert our attention to Jingzhou? But isn’t it a mistake that the troops aiming for Guanzhong end up being fewer?”

“That’s why Liu Bei sent Ma Chao.”

“You mean to mobilize the ethnic minorities? It’s a shallow trick as the Grand Commander said. Then how about sending a large army to Guanzhong and even recapturing Hanzhong?”

“If we do that, they will change their main attack to Luoyang. This is a deception they like. They prefer to make it difficult to distinguish between main and secondary attacks, and if we aim for the main attack, they switch the secondary attack to become the main attack.”

The ones who fell for that were Xiahou Yuan and Zhang He.

The tactic of forcing Xiahou Yuan to send reinforcements by attacking Zhang He with an army that looked like the main force, then ambushing Xiahou Yuan. If Xiahou Yuan hadn’t sent reinforcements, the force attacking Zhang He would have remained as the main force and defeated Zhang He.

The main attack becomes the secondary attack, and the secondary attack becomes the main attack. The enemy has no choice but to block both sides. Or abandon one side.

The framework of this Northern Expedition was an expansion of that tactic to a strategic scale. And what made this applicable was Cao Pi’s ascension to Emperor.

In other words, it was as good as saying that falling for Shu Han’s trick was almost entirely due to Cao Pi not giving up his desire for the throne.

However, Jia Xu’s rhetoric never pointed out such aspects.

“Your Majesty’s receiving the abdication and ascending to the throne is the flow of the times chosen by heaven. They do not know the true Mandate of Heaven, but they have shallow tricks and know how to ride the current trends.”

While elevating the Cao family by saying true Mandate of Heaven, he gives justification to the defeat by saying those who inflicted defeat on Cao Wei also had tricks.

“They have merely dug a trap using the current flowing to Your Majesty.”

“Then how should we break that trap?”

Cao Pi’s words became somewhat more polite. Like in the old days when even his position as successor wasn’t confirmed.

As he did in the past, Jia Xu gave an answer since he was asked a question.

“Their true intention lies in Guanzhong, so send reinforcements to Chang’an.”

“Then won’t Luoyang’s defense be weakened?”

“As they try to use ethnic minorities through Ma Chao, our country should use ethnic minorities through Your Majesty’s prestige. As Your Majesty ascended to the throne and shone your majestic light on all under heaven, even the Xiongnu Chanyu Huzhucheng has submitted to Your Majesty. Send them to Guanzhong.”

While Shu Han was deceiving that there would be no Northern Expedition by conducting the southern expedition, Wei settled the northern ethnic minorities. It was to stabilize the borders and also to build justification for Cao Pi’s abdication.

As a result, the Xiongnu Chanyu Huzhucheng, who originally would have surrendered thirty years later, had completely submitted to Wei.

“Using the enemy to defeat the enemy.”

“Send our country’s cavalry who will command the Xiongnu together. In the past, Liu Bei’s subordinate Zhang Ran modified stirrups to raise cavalry, but that became a bad move that strengthened our country with abundant horses even more. With Xiongnu cavalry and our country’s elite cavalry, we will be more than able to defend Guanzhong.”

The stirrups modified by Zhang Ran were already widely used in Wei as well. It was because they were not difficult to imitate due to their simple form and easy manufacturing method.

“Yongzhou and Liangzhou are good for cavalry to be active, and General Zheng Qi is better at defeating enemies than defending, so entrust the cavalry to General Zheng Qi to guard Liangzhou, and have Governor of Yongzhou Guo Huai support this. How could they covet even a piece of Guanzhong’s land?”

As Jia Xu spoke fluently about Shu Han’s intentions and methods to block their main force aiming for Guanzhong, Cao Pi not only admired but even clapped and laughed loudly.

“As expected of the Grand Commander. I will immediately entrust the cavalry to Cao Zhen and send him to Guanzhong. But what should we do about Luoyang?”

If we block Guanzhong, their main attack will become Liu Bei’s army aiming for Luoyang, not Guanzhong.

When Cao Pi asked again, recalling what Jia Xu had said earlier, Jia Xu answered as if it wasn’t difficult:

“This war is our country’s victory just by defending. Our country has many soldiers and abundant resources, but the enemy is currently riding high spirits and on edge, so Your Majesty should have the generals in various places rely on fortresses and terrain to defend.”

“A profound answer to a simple question. I will issue orders to the Grand Marshal in Wancheng.”

Cao Pi, feeling relieved by Jia Xu’s words, ended the meeting saying there was nothing more to discuss.

Immediately after, watching Cao Zhen being called to the imperial palace as Jia Xu had advised, Sima Yi quickened his steps to catch up with Jia Xu.

“Grand Commander.”

“Hmm? Isn’t it the Deputy Minister of the Right? Did you call for me?”

“We’re in private, so please feel free to call me Zhongda.”

“That’s right. Zhongda, what’s your reason for stopping me?”

“There was something puzzling in your words just now, so I’ve rudely done this.”

“Puzzling, you say? What is it?”

Sima Yi thought there was nothing wrong with Jia Xu’s words. That Guanzhong was their true intention was originally what Sima Yi had argued first, and the solutions Jia Xu mentioned were all things he had been considering inwardly.

The reason Sima Yi didn’t voice these things he knew was partly because his position was the lowest in that place, but also because he felt that wasn’t enough.

A war won just by defending.

It’s correct.

However, Sima Yi felt that wasn’t enough.

Wei needs a visible victory. To show the dignity of an imperial dynasty and to unify the world, a victory to stop their rising momentum was essential.

Even if we successfully block them, if they retreat while fully preserving their troops, they will continue with second and third offensives.

After listening to Sima Yi’s argument to the end, Jia Xu returned a question even though he had been asked one:

“Zhongda, have you ever thought about it? That our country is being led around by them.”

“Come to think of it… it’s as the Grand Commander says.”

“Since Guandu, our country has always been in the position of attacking. But at some point, that relationship began to reverse.”

Was it after Chibi? When Wei started showing signs of belatedly responding to Liu Bei’s attacks.

“Our country has lost the initiative of the times.”

“Surely… are you saying they have the Mandate of Heaven?”

“Of course not. I am a man of Cao Wei.”

“Then!”

Sima Yi’s voice rose.

“Then why didn’t you inform and break through that?”

“Don’t get too angry. Defenders have their own advantages. And as for why I didn’t inform…”

Then Jia Xu suddenly brought up words that seemed unrelated to what they were talking about.

“Zhongda, do you remember Zhang Xiu?”

“How could I not know?”

“Then you must know his end as well?”

“Didn’t he die of a local disease while advancing to subjugate the Wuhuan?”

“Do you really think so?”

It was a well-known fact that Cao Pi terribly tormented Zhang Xiu who killed his elder brother Cao Ang. And beyond that, the saying that Zhang Xiu committed suicide unable to bear Cao Pi’s threats and mockery wasn’t much of a secret either.

“I know my position and limits well. If I had stepped forward, would I be able to stand here talking with you?”

Jia Xu’s first principle was self-preservation. Unless it was absolutely necessary, he did not step forward and let things continue as they were.

This too was just an extension of that. Disappointed by this answer, Sima Yi left his greetings and withdrew.

Jia Xu, who seemed to be parting ways with Sima Yi like that, stopped for a moment and looked back. Looking at Sima Yi’s receding back, Jia Xu narrowed his eyes.

“Is he a loyal subject trying to achieve merit, or a traitorous minister hiding ambition?”

Jia Xu said his plan was due to self-preservation, but it was the right judgment on a grand scale. Even if they preserve their strength, in the long run they will wither from material losses and deteriorating public sentiment.

However, Sima Yi was advocating for adventure. Though the reward for success is great, the impact of failure would be irreversible.

Is it just greed for merit, or is he hiding something and seeing a bigger picture?

Jia Xu strongly felt it was the latter. It wasn’t clear exactly what it was, or whether it was positive or negative.

However, Jia Xu did not continue to ponder and soon erased it from his mind. That was Jia Xu’s way of living.

“There won’t be any peaceful days in the world for a while.”