Contrasting Possibilities

The next day, Sunday.

I called Rebecca Katerfeld to the campus walking path to have a brief conversation. This was because I judged that repeatedly loitering in the same places, such as cafes or the library, wouldn’t look good.

As always, after confirming there was no eavesdropping or surveillance, we got straight to the point to end our conversation quickly. I explained the ‘information’ I had obtained by selling my body to Duey.

“She said the blue flame she mentioned is related to her own ambition.”

“You mean Duey’s personal ambition, not something objectively great?”

Katerfeld accurately pinpointed the core even in a short sentence. I nodded, slightly impressed by her insight.

“That’s exactly what it means.”

“Did Duey explain her ambition precisely?”

“World War.”

Katerfeld shuddered. Although she doesn’t seem to be obsessed with national or ethnic consciousness, that simple word would be enough to make any German tremble.

The once-powerful Kaiserreich lost so much in that Great War. It’s not just about territorial issues like Alsace-Lorraine or West Prussia. It was a loss of national pride, a nightmare they didn’t want to recall, the first link that led to subordination to the United States, and also a current issue that extends to Germany’s current political chaos.

Germany has not yet overcome the after-effects of the first Great War, which is already 60 years old. Although Katerfeld seems convinced that a second Great War will break out soon, she still can’t suppress her fear of that word and concept.

“So, Duey seems to believe that you will stand at the crossroads leading to a world war.”

“…I don’t want to stand in such a place.”

“But if so, the Chen Yayuan issue becomes interesting. If Duey is really telling the truth without lies, it means that Chen Yayuan was somehow connected to some clue that could trigger a second world war, World War II… It’s an important clue. It could be deeply related to the reason why Chen Yayuan died.”

“Actually, the problem is that the information I know supports Duey’s testimony.”

As Katerfeld showed interest in my words, I explained to her the reason why I originally came to this school. That is, Chen Yayuan had contacted the U.S. government claiming to have information that could trigger a second world war and requested a meeting, and that I was the one who came to China to monitor whether Chen Yayuan was a trustworthy person before actually making contact.

Putting it all together like this, another possibility came to mind.

The thought that perhaps the information Chen Yayuan spoke of was not to prevent the second war, but to trigger it. Katerfeld seemed to have the same thought.

“If the story goes that way, that is, if Chen Yayuan intended to trigger a world war by passing some information to the United States, it means she expected that the United States would start war activities upon hearing the information she was passing.”

The German psychic said. I nodded.

“It’s just speculation, but that hypothesis comes to mind for now.”

“The United States is the country that least wants a great war in the world. It’s a strange story. No matter what information is presented, there’s no way the United States would want a war that would disrupt the world’s balance. The current international structure is ideal only for the United States more than any other country.”

Her words are correct. Objectively speaking, in the current world situation, the country that is most stable, most powerful, and gaining the most benefit without loss is none other than the United States.

First, the United States belongs to the winning side. Although some independent African colonies and Brazil in South America are inclined towards Marxism, the communist sphere of influence is basically weak except for the Soviet Union and Japan.

The situation in the communist camp has become complex and delicate since Japan refused unconditional obedience to the Kremlin in ’82. On the other hand, the 1945 League of Nations system created by the cooperation of the U.S., China, UK, and France has a firm military superiority over the communist bloc.

There’s also this saying: ‘The LN can definitely destroy the International. But the International hasn’t acquired the capacity to completely destroy the LN.’ Although this is what hawks and warmongers within the Western bloc say when arguing for a preemptive strike on Moscow, the gap in nuclear power between the two camps is clear to the extent that there’s no distinct rebuttal.

The United States is one of the leaders of this winning side, while suffering the least damage from this confrontation. China shares a long and vast border with the Soviet Union from Xinjiang to Primorsky Krai, causing border issues to explode at least once a month or week, and Japanese warships or merchant ships, or warships disguised as merchant ships, often appear on the coast like pirates.

France and Britain are facing Moscow with only the unbelievable barriers of Germany and Poland in between. Although it seems far away at a glance due to the buffer zone, if a problem occurs in Europe, France would have to lead virtually all war operations instead of Germany, which has catastrophically weak military power. Moreover, the conflict between Libya and Algeria is practically a quasi-wartime situation. Britain, which has interests at stake in Egypt, is watching the turmoil in North Africa with great discomfort.

The United States is relatively peaceful. Of course, terrorism occurs in America, and things worse than terrorism happen, and even riots break out in severe cases, but the Russian Far Eastern Corps bordering Alaska and the Brazilian Soviet are nothing compared to the risk factors that other permanent members of the League of Nations are experiencing.

The United States is strong, wealthy, and satisfied. If there’s a country that wants to maintain rather than collapse the world order, it’s the United States, and if there are people who want to overturn this situation, it’s the communists, not the capitalists.

In other words, she chose the wrong party to contact. If Chen Yayuan had information that could trigger a world war, the United States would kill Chen Yayuan to eliminate that information rather than start a war after seeing it. It’s incomprehensible what she was thinking.

“Another speculation is possible.”

Katerfeld said.

“First, do you have any ambition to start a world war right now? Honestly, without lies. Tell me frankly without hiding it because I’m German or an unfamiliar outsider.”

“It’s true that there are aspects of this world I’m not satisfied with. But a great war? I’m not crazy enough to wish for such a thing.”

“But Duey claimed to see a blue flame in you. In other words, she might be reading the destiny contained in desire. That is, we’re assuming that while your intentional orientation isn’t towards a great war, she’s reading that you’ll inevitably become entangled with a great war by fate.”

“Hmm…”

“It’s like a Greek tragedy. Chen Yayuan had information that might trigger a world war, and she tried to contact the United States to prevent it. As we speculated, because the United States is the country that least wants war in the world right now, she tried to solve the problem through the United States.”

“If we assume that, then the person who killed Chen Yayuan…”

“Could be someone who wants a great war. It’s an excessive speculation, but how about thinking like this? She wanted to prevent a great war, so she tried to pass the information she knew to the United States. But there was someone in this school who wanted to stop that situation and trigger a war, so they killed Chen Yayuan and took that information. Then, as a result, her desire becomes the starting point for triggering a war…”

“And that flame Duey saw, it predicted even such a complex fate?”

“We’re living in an age of superhumans. Don’t think it’s an absurd conjecture.”

I know it’s possible.

I already know that such things are actually possible. But… if so, the most likely suspect is… Katerfeld seemed to notice my concern and shrugged with a hollow laugh.

“Let’s not jump to conclusions too quickly. If we draw conclusions based only on circumstances, our brains start to reject empirical evidence. It’s a trap that even the smartest people easily fall into.”

“But just by changing one assumption, the conclusion goes in the opposite direction.”

“That’s also why you were cleared as a murder suspect, right? Whether Chen Yayuan’s murder was external manipulation or a simple murder. Depending on which assumption you start with, anyone could have been the culprit, and it was a strange case no matter who the culprit was. And we still can’t rule out the possibility of a purge by the upper echelons of the Kuomintang. Anyway, thanks for the useful information. I’ll keep this information well in mind and refer to it during the investigation the week after next.”

“The week after next… Yes, it’s come that close.”

Chiang Kai-shek’s birthday has already come so close. If the atomic bomb incident hadn’t happened, this school would have been adorned with various decorations and a festive atmosphere. The birthday of the Generalissimo who saved China wasn’t just an event in Nanjing.

But this year, the atmosphere is so grim that decorations prepared for the festival are being incinerated here and there. Even a single remark like “It’s a shame the festival was canceled” could be very dangerous. Even if it comes from loyalty to the Generalissimo, once Chiang Kai-shek has declared a solemn period of mourning across the country, complaining about the festival itself could be seen as discontent with the party and disloyalty to the country.

We can’t predict yet what actions Chiang Kai-shek will show on his birthday. We don’t know yet if the reason Zhou Lizhi is being called to Beiping is simply for security.

And we can’t do anything but speculate where that will lead our fate.

Time passed and passed, and October 29 approached.

It was the very day the transcontinental train from Guangzhou to Beiping was departing.